April 25 McClellan Oscillator, $RUT, & Summation Index

Thanks to Radrian for the great $RUT update. It looks as though my hoped-for scenario of strong A-D performance lifting the $RUT and the whole market higher has been nullified and must start over almost from scratch. The NY McOs fell to -3 today, thus causing the NYSI to post a negative gap and begin rolling over. If we are lucky, the McOs will hold in the 0 area and move up into positive territory again soon. In the big picture that would cause the NYSI downward turn to end up just being a shallow dip creating a higher low. I am far from confident that that will happen, but maybe my fear is a good contrary indicator.

April 22, 2014 $RUT, A-D Line, & Summation Index

It  seems to me that the $RUTovercame tough resistance in the region of 1110-1130 where it's action was very choppy and is now moving steadily higher, as evidenced by closing on it's high of the day. We'll see if the choppiness resumes when it hits the resistance areas Radrian discussed above (1147-1166). If it can ascend in a steady manner through that potentially turbulent zone, that would be a huge plus and a sign that most bears on this index did their selling around the 1120 (+-10) area.
We got the excellent day Tuesday April 22, 2014 with the A-D line up 1431 and the Russell 2k up 1.16% that I said we needed in yesterday's post  It looks like the larger caps were the ones that faded out near the close today. R2k Rel Strength line has made a U-shaped bottom and turned up. I didn't see any choppiness in R2k today so the 1147-1165 resistance area  hasn't been tough so far. I will discuss the McOs and Sum Index when those numbers are calculated by Decision Point, but you can refer back to my post of yesterday to see the basis of my argument.
  Jedi (poster on Tony Caldero site) and Tony have been making the point that the R2k usually tops out before the $SPX etc and of course that is true. I would add the A-D line to that category as well. That is the very reason  I have been focusing on the $RUT in the first place (as well as the fact that I have a large long position in a small cap mutual fund). But where Radrian brought us to in his analysis of the R2k was a discussion of how the index behaved at various  potential resistance areas to determine whether the $RUT had indeed topped out for the duration or not.  It certainly is entitled to top out at any time, given it's long run as a leading index.
    I have been closely observing it's behavior at the various resistance levels pointed out by Radrian, as I discussed in my earlier post. Doing the follow up that I promised in that post, the McClellan Oscillator closed today at 37.30 and that produced a nice-sized upside gap (distance between points) on the Summation Index, which has clearly started an uptrend which has a look similar to what the early stage a of strong breadth impulse might display. Whether the SI can continue to produce large upside gaps is dependent on the McOs's source indicator, the A-D line having large positive daily pluralities. If all that happens, the R2k should not have much trouble sailing through overhead  resistance.  And if the $RUT develops a strong uptrend, it is almost inconceivable that the large-cap indexes will not make new highs.
 This entire bull market has essentially moved up on unimpressive volume and that is actually an indication that this market is still in the control of high-powered smart money and may not be as far along in it's time progression as is generally believed. I will leave it to the EW and OEW experts to parse out the wave structures if my bullish scenario continues to develop as I hope it will.

April 21, 2014 $RUT, A-D Line, & Summation Index

   If the market falls, it will surely take the $RUT with it. But I am more optimistic than Radrian (analyst of $RUT on Tony Caldero OEW site) about the R2k because in an only moderately strong market on Monday the R2k closed on it's high of the day. It seems to me that it overcame tough resistance in the region of 1110-1130 where it's action was very choppy and is now moving steadily higher, as evidenced by closing on it's high of the day. We'll see if the choppiness resumes when it hits the resistance areas Radrian discussed above (1147-1166). If it can ascend in a steady manner through that potentially turbulent zone, that would be a huge plus and a sign that most bears on this index did their selling around the 1120 (+-10) area.
   The A-D line (closely related to the R2k) made a new high Monday; the McClellan Oscillator (McOs), a kind of filter or ema of  the A-D line, has risen above 0 and looks as though it wants to move higher. The Summation Index (SI), calculated by adding the daily McOs numbers, is now showing the beginning of an uptrend with larger gaps between it's points. It has not yet produced what Gene Morgan of the old "Charting the Market" TV show called "breakaway gaps", but it is only one strong breadth day, like the one we had on April 16, from doing so. Another hopeful sign is that the Sentiment Trader's long-term Index remained at the 50 area for the last two Fridays, meaning that bullish sentiment for the long term direction of the market was neutral. This indicator is most useful when viewed as a "contrary opinion" indicator. The less bullish it's reading, the further from the top the market is.