It seems to me that the $RUTovercame tough resistance in the region of 1110-1130 where it's action was very choppy and is now moving steadily higher, as evidenced by closing on it's high of the day. We'll see if the choppiness resumes when it hits the resistance areas Radrian discussed above (1147-1166). If it can ascend in a steady manner through that potentially turbulent zone, that would be a huge plus and a sign that most bears on this index did their selling around the 1120 (+-10) area.
We got the excellent day Tuesday April 22, 2014 with the A-D line up 1431 and the Russell 2k up 1.16% that I said we needed in yesterday's post It looks like the larger caps were the ones that faded out near the close today. R2k Rel Strength line has made a U-shaped bottom and turned up. I didn't see any choppiness in R2k today so the 1147-1165 resistance area hasn't been tough so far. I will discuss the McOs and Sum Index when those numbers are calculated by Decision Point, but you can refer back to my post of yesterday to see the basis of my argument.
Jedi (poster on Tony Caldero site) and Tony have been making the point that the R2k usually tops out before the $SPX etc and of course that is true. I would add the A-D line to that category as well. That is the very reason I have been focusing on the $RUT in the first place (as well as the fact that I have a large long position in a small cap mutual fund). But where Radrian brought us to in his analysis of the R2k was a discussion of how the index behaved at various potential resistance areas to determine whether the $RUT had indeed topped out for the duration or not. It certainly is entitled to top out at any time, given it's long run as a leading index.
I have been closely observing it's behavior at the various resistance levels pointed out by Radrian, as I discussed in my earlier post. Doing the follow up that I promised in that post, the McClellan Oscillator closed today at 37.30 and that produced a nice-sized upside gap (distance between points) on the Summation Index, which has clearly started an uptrend which has a look similar to what the early stage a of strong breadth impulse might display. Whether the SI can continue to produce large upside gaps is dependent on the McOs's source indicator, the A-D line having large positive daily pluralities. If all that happens, the R2k should not have much trouble sailing through overhead resistance. And if the $RUT develops a strong uptrend, it is almost inconceivable that the large-cap indexes will not make new highs.
This entire bull market has essentially moved up on unimpressive volume and that is actually an indication that this market is still in the control of high-powered smart money and may not be as far along in it's time progression as is generally believed. I will leave it to the EW and OEW experts to parse out the wave structures if my bullish scenario continues to develop as I hope it will.
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
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