Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Mystery Indicator & Monday Oct 13 2014 A-D Action

The Mystery indicator is starting to move down for all the Price Indexes, but not yet in proportion to the degree of the price declines. I am at the point of concluding that it is of no use in predicting intermediate-term corrections (do not mean intermediate Elliott waves). Maybe it is accurate in predicting or tracking the primary (long term) direction of the various price indexes, or maybe it's numerous detractors are correct in believing it is a just plain useless indicator. I am therefore discontinuing my commentary on it until the bull market is over; then I will try to see how well it matched market price action over the course of the entire bull market.
The small-cap R2K was down only .38% today and the A-D line posted a -1116 on a day when the $SPX recorded a -31.39 and the DJIA a -223.  On a day like today, the R2K could easily have put in a  -2.5%  day and the A-D line could easily have displayed -2000+ declines over advances. Inasmuch as the latter two indexes had previously been the market leaders, maybe this is a sign of Major Wave A decelerating, and hopefully  approaching conclusion.
The RS of the R2K vs SPX made another potential bottom and incipient turnaround today, but we shall have to see if it becomes an uptrend. Here is the link to the chart:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24RUT%3A%24SPX

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