The weekly NYSE A-D line ($NYAD) looks as though it may be forming a head & shoulders top and may be starting to decline from that top. Link to the $NYAD chart:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NYAD
The US Dollar ($USD) on it's daily chart looks to be making a flat-top consolidation prior to embarking on a substantial new up leg. This chart pattern on the USD seems more reliable to me than a similar one being manifested on the S&P 500 ($SPX) because it is coming at a much earlier stage in it's bull market than the similar pattern does in US equities. Link to $USD chart:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$USD
This bull market has given many deceptive bearish signals in an attempt to keep as few people as possible from riding it, but it must fairly soon act to nullify the bearish weekly $NYAD chart or that pattern may well drag us down into an Elliott Wave Primary IV correction. A wise investor will always want to avoid a Primary wave correction but it is all the more important to do so when it occurs late in a bull market (Primary IV vs. Primary II) because the decline could turn out to be the next primary bear market, and it will be difficult to persuade oneself to sell after the SPX has already declined 20% +.
I believe that the benefits of a strong national currency outweigh it's negatives, so I consider the $USD strength a long-term bullish force for the US stock market.
Monday, November 17, 2014
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